FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 17 September 2026

Viktoria Plzen 0–3 Union St.-GilloiseMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 17 September 2026

Viktoria Plzen
0–3
Union St.-Gilloise win
Union St.-Gilloise

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Viktoria Plzen or draw at 69%. Bawler had Viktoria Plzen at 41%, the draw at 28% and Union St.-Gilloise at 31%. The match finished 0–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Viktoria Plzen win
41%
Draw
28%
Union St.-Gilloise win
31%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.4 – 1.2
Total 2.6
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.4 against our forecast)

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 2.6.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals ranks 73% in the model's forecast, anchored to Plzen's 1.39 xG and a combined shot quality that projects 2.56 expected goals across both sides."

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