Viktoria Plzen vs Union St.-Gilloise prediction — Europa League · Thu 17 Sept · 20:00 UK

Europa League · Thu 17 Sept · 20:00 UK
Viktoria Plzen 41Draw 28Union St.-Gilloise 31
Our call before kickoff
69%
Viktoria Plzen or draw
Missed
2.6
Goals expected
Full time
Final 0–3
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
74%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
52%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
47%

How it finished

Union St.-Gilloise beat Viktoria Plzen 3–0. Bawler's model favoured Viktoria Plzen at 41% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Union St.-Gilloise 31%. It forecast 2.6 goals and the match produced 3. Viktoria Plzen had 14 shots (5 on target) to Union St.-Gilloise's 22 (13), with 49% of the ball against 51%.

Viktoria…Full-time statsUnion…
49%Possession51%
14Shots22
5Shots on target13
5Corners1
10Saves4
13Fouls11
0Offsides3
2Yellow cards2
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callViktoria Plzen or draw 69%Union St.-Gilloise won (31% called)
Total goals2.63
Both teams to score52%No
Graded pickOver 1.5 goals 73%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

Viktoria PlzenUnion St.-Gilloise
1.4
Goals+0.2
1.2
15.5
Shots+4.0
11.5
4.4
On target+1.7
6.1
5.7
Corners+1.5
4.2
Viktoria PlzenUnion St.-Gilloise
0.6
Goals+0.2
0.4
7.8
Shots+2.5
5.2
2.1
On target+0.7
2.7
2.7
Corners+0.7
2.0
Viktoria PlzenUnion St.-Gilloise
0.8
Goals+0.1
0.8
7.8
Shots+1.5
6.3
2.3
On target+1.0
3.4
3.0
Corners+0.8
2.2

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Viktoria Plzen to score75%
Under 3.5 goals74%
Over 1.5 goals73%
Union St.-Gilloise to score69%

First half — what we expected

Viktoria Plzen
57%
to score before half-time
Union St.-Gilloise
40%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 74%

Viktoria PlzenUnion St.-Gilloise
7.81st-half shots5.2
2.11st-half shots on target2.7
2.71st-half corners2.0

First-half chances

61%Chance of 7+ shots30%
38%Chance of 9+ shots13%
58%Chance of 2+ shots on target72%
18%Chance of 4+ shots on target30%
70%Chance of 2+ corners54%
29%Chance of 4+ corners17%

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Viktoria Plzen7.87.8
Shots · Union St.-Gilloise5.26.3
Shots on target · Viktoria Plzen2.12.3
Shots on target · Union St.-Gilloise2.73.4
Corners · Viktoria Plzen2.73.0
Corners · Union St.-Gilloise2.02.2
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.2 / match
Union St.-Gilloise in their league tableTop quarter
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Viktoria Plzen vs Union St.-Gilloise?

Union St.-Gilloise beat Viktoria Plzen 3–0. Bawler's model favoured Viktoria Plzen at 41% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Union St.-Gilloise 31%. It forecast 2.6 goals and the match produced 3. Viktoria Plzen had 14 shots (5 on target) to Union St.-Gilloise's 22 (13), with 49% of the ball against 51%.

What was the final score in Viktoria Plzen vs Union St.-Gilloise?

Viktoria Plzen 0–3 Union St.-Gilloise, played on 17 Sept 2026 in the Europe: Europa League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Viktoria Plzen 41%, the draw 28% and Union St.-Gilloise 31%.

What were the stats in Viktoria Plzen vs Union St.-Gilloise?

Full-time: Possession 49%–51%, Shots 14–22, Shots on target 5–13, Corners 5–1, Saves 10–4, Fouls 13–11, Offsides 0–3, Yellow cards 2–2.

Did both teams score in Viktoria Plzen vs Union St.-Gilloise?

No. It finished 0–3, so Viktoria Plzen failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 52% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Viktoria Plzen vs Union St.-Gilloise right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Viktoria Plzen or draw 69%, it finished Union St.-Gilloise won (31% called); Total goals — we said 2.6, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 52%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 73%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

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