FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Willem II 0–1 Fortuna SittardMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Fortuna Sittard or draw at 64%. Bawler had Willem II at 36%, the draw at 24% and Fortuna Sittard at 40%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Willem II win
36%
Draw
24%
Fortuna Sittard win
40%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.8
Total 3.4
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced 2.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 86%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 83% confidence as Willem II's modest 1.56 xG and Fortuna Sittard's 1.68 xG combine for a high-volume attacking fixture despite the 5-point table gap."