FT · NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Willem II 1–4 NEC NijmegenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 15 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Willem II at 42%, draw at 31%, NEC Nijmegen at 27%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-4. The model's headline call was Willem II to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
II win
42%
Draw
31%
Nijmegen win
27%
Actual ✓
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won