FT · NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Willem II 1–4 NEC NijmegenMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Willem II or draw at 73%. Bawler had Willem II at 42%, the draw at 31% and NEC Nijmegen at 27%. The match finished 1–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Willem II win
42%
Draw
31%
NEC Nijmegen win
27%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 4
Total 5 (+2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 3.0
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 25%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.