FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 29 August 2026
1. FC Union Berlin 3–3 Eintracht FrankfurtMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was 1. FC Union Berlin or draw at 72%. Bawler had 1. FC Union Berlin at 46%, the draw at 25% and Eintracht Frankfurt at 28%. The match finished 3–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
1. FC Union Berlin win
46%
Draw
25%
Result
Eintracht Frankfurt win
28%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.3
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+3.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 3.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
1. FC Union Berlin or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Frankfurt chases European qualification while Union defend mid-table comfort, yet the hosts' 0.36 xG advantage and 71% 1. FC Union Berlin or draw forecast suggests they'll either win or hold ground."