FT · ITALY: Serie A · Friday, 28 August 2026
AC Milan 2–0 VeneziaMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 28 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AC Milan or draw at 79%. Bawler had AC Milan at 54%, the draw at 25% and Venezia at 21%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
AC Milan win
54%
Result
Draw
25%
Venezia win
21%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.0
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
AC Milan or draw
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.