AC Milan vs Venezia prediction — Serie A · Fri 28 Aug · 19:45 UK

Serie A · Fri 28 Aug · 19:45 UK
AC Milan 54Draw 25Venezia 21
Our call before kickoff
79%
AC Milan or draw
Landed
2.8
Goals expected
Full time
Final 2–0
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
68%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
52%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
52%

How it finished

AC Milan beat Venezia 2–0. Bawler's model had AC Milan in front at 54% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 2 were scored. AC Milan had 16 shots (5 on target) to Venezia's 9 (2), with 58% of the ball against 42%. Expected goals finished 2.1 to 0.8.

AC MilanFull-time statsVenezia
58%Possession42%
2.1Expected goals (xG)0.8
16Shots9
5Shots on target2
11Shots inside box7
7Big chances0
2Corners3
2Saves4
8Fouls11
1Offsides4
1Yellow cards3
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callAC Milan or draw 79%AC Milan won (54% called)
Total goals2.82
Both teams to score52%No

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

AC MilanVenezia
1.8
Goals+0.8
1.0
15.9
Shots+10.6
5.3
AC MilanVenezia
0.5
Goals+0.1
0.4
6.7
Shots+4.3
2.4
AC MilanVenezia
1.3
Goals+0.6
0.6
9.2
Shots+6.3
2.9

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
AC Milan to score83%
Over 1.5 goals76%
Under 3.5 goals70%
Venezia to score63%

First half — what we expected

AC Milan
51%
to score before half-time
Venezia
36%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 68%

AC MilanVenezia
6.71st-half shots2.4
2.01st-half shots on target2.9
2.41st-half corners0.1

First-half chances

61%Chance of 6+ shots<10%
37%Chance of 8+ shots<10%
57%Chance of 2+ shots on target74%
17%Chance of 4+ shots on target33%
87%Chance of 1+ corners<10%
41%Chance of 3+ corners<10%

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · AC Milan6.79.2
Shots · Venezia2.42.9
Shots on target · AC Milan2.02.9
Shots on target · Venezia2.93.5
Corners · AC Milan2.42.7
Corners · Venezia0.10.1
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.8 / match
Venezia in their league tableBottom quarter

Head to head

Apr 2025Venezia 0–2 Milan
Sept 2024Milan 4–0 Venezia
Jan 2022Venezia 0–3 Milan
Sept 2021Milan 2–0 Venezia
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won AC Milan vs Venezia?

AC Milan beat Venezia 2–0. Bawler's model had AC Milan in front at 54% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 2 were scored. AC Milan had 16 shots (5 on target) to Venezia's 9 (2), with 58% of the ball against 42%. Expected goals finished 2.1 to 0.8.

What was the final score in AC Milan vs Venezia?

AC Milan 2–0 Venezia, played on 28 Aug 2026 in the ITALY: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with AC Milan 54%, the draw 25% and Venezia 21%.

What were the stats in AC Milan vs Venezia?

Full-time: Possession 58%–42%, Expected goals (xG) 2.1–0.8, Shots 16–9, Shots on target 5–2, Shots inside box 11–7, Big chances 7–0, Corners 2–3, Saves 2–4, Fouls 8–11, Offsides 1–4, Yellow cards 1–3.

Did both teams score in AC Milan vs Venezia?

No. It finished 2–0, so Venezia failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 52% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for AC Milan vs Venezia right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said AC Milan or draw 79%, it finished AC Milan won (54% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 52%, it finished No.

Around this fixture

Serie A table →
All fixtures & results →AC Milan form →Venezia form →