FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Académico de Viseu 2–1 Vitória de GuimaraesMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Académico de Viseu or draw at 70%. Bawler had Académico de Viseu at 43%, the draw at 27% and Vitória de Guimaraes at 30%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Académico de Viseu win
43%
Result
Draw
27%
Vitória de Guimaraes win
30%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.2
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 2.1
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Académico de Viseu's 1.50 expected goals edge over Vitória de Guimaraes' 1.22 supports the high-confidence Over 1.5 Goals forecast at 76%, as both sides project sufficient attacking threat despite their narrow xG gap."