FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 12 September 2026
AFC Bournemouth 2–2 BrentfordMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AFC Bournemouth or draw at 70%. Bawler had AFC Bournemouth at 46%, the draw at 24% and Brentford at 30%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
AFC Bournemouth win
46%
Draw
24%
Result
Brentford win
30%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.4
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.2 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Medium confidence
AFC Bournemouth or draw
Pre-match: 70%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals carries an 83% forecast confidence, driven by Bournemouth's 1.81 xG and Brentford's Igor Rodrigues accounting for 34% of his side's attacking threat."