FT · Europe: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
AGF 1–3 BenficaMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Benfica or draw at 78%. Bawler had AGF at 22%, the draw at 24% and Benfica at 54%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
AGF win
22%
Draw
24%
Benfica win
54%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.8
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Benfica to win
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates the forecast at 79% confidence, driven by Benfica's 0.73 xG advantage and Pavlidis's 28% of their attacking load as focal point."