FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 29 August 2026
AJ Auxerre 1–3 AngersMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was AJ Auxerre or draw at 76%. Bawler had AJ Auxerre at 48%, the draw at 28% and Angers at 24%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
AJ Auxerre win
48%
Draw
28%
Angers win
24%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.0
Total 2.5
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
AJ Auxerre or draw
Pre-match: 76%
Missed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Auxerre's desperate five-game fight to avoid the drop gives them the edge at home where they generate 0.59 more expected goals than Angers, making a home win or draw the 77% model forecast."