FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 20 September 2026
AJ Auxerre 2–1 BrestMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AJ Auxerre or draw at 63%. Bawler had AJ Auxerre at 37%, the draw at 27% and Brest at 37%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
AJ Auxerre win
37%
Result
Draw
27%
Brest win
37%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.4
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's 74% call here, built on combined xG of 2.65 despite Auxerre's narrow 40% win probability versus Brest's 33%."