FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Ajax Amsterdam 1–3 PSV EindhovenMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was PSV Eindhoven or draw at 67%. Bawler had Ajax Amsterdam at 33%, the draw at 24% and PSV Eindhoven at 43%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Ajax Amsterdam win
33%
Draw
24%
PSV Eindhoven win
43%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.8
Total 3.4
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 2.6
From the match itself
The match produced 0.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 85% because Ajax's 1.56 xG and PSV's 1.80 xG combine for a 3.36 total that favors attacking football, with Weghorst and de Jong driving over half their teams' shot quality."