FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Ajax Amsterdam 5–1 Willem IIMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Ajax Amsterdam to win at 74%. Bawler had Ajax Amsterdam at 74%, the draw at 16% and Willem II at 10%. The match finished 5–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Ajax Amsterdam win
74%
Result
Draw
16%
Willem II win
10%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.7 – 0.9
Total 3.6
Actual
5 – 1
Total 6 (+2.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.8 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 2.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Ajax Amsterdam to win
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Ajax's home win is the high-confidence call at 74%, built on a decisive 1.76 xG advantage and Weghorst's 26% share of their attacking load against Willem II's 0.93 expected goals."