How it finished
Ajax Amsterdam beat Willem II 5–1. Bawler's model had Ajax Amsterdam in front at 74% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.6 goals; the match produced 6. Ajax Amsterdam had 33 shots (12 on target) to Willem II's 10 (4), with 70% of the ball against 30%. Expected goals finished 3.8 to 1.6.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 86%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Ajax Amsterdam vs Willem II?
Ajax Amsterdam beat Willem II 5–1. Bawler's model had Ajax Amsterdam in front at 74% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.6 goals; the match produced 6. Ajax Amsterdam had 33 shots (12 on target) to Willem II's 10 (4), with 70% of the ball against 30%. Expected goals finished 3.8 to 1.6.
What was the final score in Ajax Amsterdam vs Willem II?
Ajax Amsterdam 5–1 Willem II, played on 15 Sept 2026 in the Netherlands: Eredivisie. Bawler's model had gone into it with Ajax Amsterdam 74%, the draw 16% and Willem II 10%.
What were the stats in Ajax Amsterdam vs Willem II?
Full-time: Possession 70%–30%, Expected goals (xG) 3.8–1.6, Shots 33–10, Shots on target 12–4, Shots inside box 26–7, Big chances 4–3, Corners 14–2, Saves 3–7, Fouls 6–3, Offsides 3–4.
Did both teams score in Ajax Amsterdam vs Willem II?
Yes — both Ajax Amsterdam and Willem II scored, finishing 5–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Ajax Amsterdam vs Willem II right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Ajax Amsterdam to win 74%, it finished Ajax Amsterdam won (74% called); Total goals — we said 3.6, it finished 6; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished Yes.