World: World CupSunday 28 Jun, 02:00 UTC

Algeria vAustria

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.57 goals expected
Algeria 25%Draw 32%Austria 43%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
73%

Over 1.5 Goals lands at 73% because Austria's 1.48 xG and Algeria's creation through Mahrez (26% of team output) combine for a 2.57 total-xG thriller.

How we get there
AlgeriastepAustria
1.09Base xG · rolling 26-match1.48
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.09Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.48
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
73%
Draw
23%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Algeria average 4.0 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches). Austria average 2.0 corners per game away from home this season (3 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
11
8
4
2
1
8
12
9
4
2
2
5
7
5
2
1
3
2
2
2
1
4
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Mohamed Amoura
Algeria · VfL Wolfsburg
40%
To score
Riyad Mahrez
Algeria · Al-Ahli
36%
To score
Amine Gouiri
Algeria · Marseille
36%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Algeria vs Austria — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Algeria and Austria — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Algeria 25% · draw 32% · Austria 43%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Algeria 33 Austria
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.