FT · Europe: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Anderlecht 3–0 Kairat AlmatyMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Anderlecht to win at 63%. Bawler had Anderlecht at 63%, the draw at 21% and Kairat Almaty at 16%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Anderlecht win
63%
Result
Draw
21%
Kairat Almaty win
16%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 1.0
Total 3.2
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (−0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.2 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 3.2.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Anderlecht to win
Pre-match: 63%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 39%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Anderlecht's home win is the high-confidence call at 63%, backed by a dominant 1.15 xG advantage that reflects their superior attacking threat in this Europa League qualifier."