FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Angers 1–2 Stade RennaisMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Stade Rennais or draw at 72%. Bawler had Angers at 28%, the draw at 26% and Stade Rennais at 46%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Angers win
28%
Draw
26%
Stade Rennais win
46%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.7
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Stade Rennais or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Rennais defending a European spot with 5 games left faces a mid-table Angers with nothing to play for, and the xG gap (0.46) supports Over 1.5 Goals at 79% as the model's high-confidence call."