FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Angers 2–0 TroyesMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Angers or draw at 68%. Bawler had Angers at 42%, the draw at 26% and Troyes at 32%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Angers win
42%
Result
Draw
26%
Troyes win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.3
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.3 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 75% confidence as Angers' superior shot-creation (1.46 xG) gives them the edge in a narrow xG gap that still favors attacking play."