World: World CupMonday 22 Jun, 17:00 UTC

Argentina vAustria

Most likely scoreline
10
11% of the time · 2.88 goals expected
Argentina 55%Draw 27%Austria 17%
Strongest call
Over 2.5 goals
76%

Over 2.5 Goals sits at 76% probability because Argentina's 1.89 xG and Messi's 22% shot creation dominance overwhelm Austria's 0.99 xG output.

How we get there
ArgentinastepAustria
1.89Base xG · rolling 26-match0.99
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.89Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.99
Most likely outcomes
Over 2.5 goals
76%
Under 2.5 goals
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Argentina average 4.0 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Austria average 2.0 corners per game away from home this season (3 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
6
3
1
1
11
11
5
2
2
10
10
5
2
3
6
6
3
1
4
3
3
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Lautaro Martínez
Argentina · Inter Milan
52%
To score
Lionel Messi
Argentina · Inter Miami
50%
To score
Julián Álvarez
Argentina · Atletico Madrid
45%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Argentina vs Austria — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Argentina and Austria — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Argentina 55% · draw 27% · Austria 17%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Argentina 20 Austria
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.