FT · World: International Friendly · Thursday, 01 October 2026

Argentina 4–0 BoliviaMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 01 October 2026

Argentina
4–0
Argentina win
Bolivia

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Argentina to win at 96%. Bawler had Argentina at 96%, the draw at 4% and Bolivia at 0%. The match finished 4–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Argentina win
96%
Result
Draw
4%
Bolivia win
0%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
3.8 – 0.2
Total 4.0
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (−0.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.2 – 0.1
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 4.0.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Argentina to win
Pre-match: 96%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Argentina's dominance at home is overwhelming: a 3.50 expected-goal advantage and 95% win probability make the Home Win the clear forecast, anchored by Messi's 22% of team attacking output."

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