World: World CupTuesday 07 Jul, 16:00 UTC

Argentina vEgypt

Most likely scoreline
10
12% of the time · 2.60 goals expected
Argentina 52%Draw 30%Egypt 19%
Strongest call
Over 2.5 goals
64%

Over 2.5 Goals sits at 64% probability because Argentina's 1.67 xG combined with Egypt's 0.93 creates a 0.74 xG gap that favors attacking dominance at home.

How we get there
ArgentinastepEgypt
1.67Base xG · rolling 26-match0.93
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.67Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.93
Most likely outcomes
Over 2.5 goals
64%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 3.5 goals
21%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Argentina average 4.0 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Egypt average 2.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
7
3
1
1
12
12
5
2
2
10
10
4
1
3
6
5
2
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Mohamed Salah
Egypt · Liverpool
55%
To score
Lautaro Martínez
Argentina · Inter Milan
52%
To score
Lionel Messi
Argentina · Inter Miami
50%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Argentina vs Egypt — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Argentina and Egypt — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Argentina 52% · draw 30% · Egypt 19%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Argentina 32 Egypt
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.