World: World CupSunday 12 Jul, 01:00 UTC

Argentina vSwitzerland

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.82 goals expected
Argentina 51%Draw 28%Switzerland 21%
Strongest call
Argentina or draw
80%

Argentina's 1X banker at 80% reflects a 0.41 expected-goals edge and 51% win probability that makes the home side's cushion against Switzerland too valuable to ignore.

How we get there
ArgentinastepSwitzerland
1.61Base xG · rolling 26-match1.20
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.61Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.20
Most likely outcomes
Argentina or draw
80%
Argentina to win
55%
Draw
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Argentina average 4.0 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Switzerland average 4.3 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
7
4
2
1
1
10
12
7
3
1
2
8
9
6
2
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Lautaro Martínez
Argentina · Inter Milan
52%
To score
Lionel Messi
Argentina · Inter Miami
50%
To score
Julián Álvarez
Argentina · Atletico Madrid
45%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Argentina vs Switzerland — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Argentina and Switzerland — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Argentina 51% · draw 28% · Switzerland 21%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Argentina 31 Switzerland
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.