FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Arouca 1–2 Santa ClaraMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Santa Clara or draw at 66%. Bawler had Arouca at 34%, the draw at 29% and Santa Clara at 37%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Arouca win
34%
Draw
29%
Santa Clara win
37%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.3
Total 2.5
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 70%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 70% because both sides generate nearly identical attacking threat—Arouca 1.19 xG and Santa Clara 1.26 xG—making a low-scoring stalemate unlikely at the Estádio Municipal."