FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 05 September 2026
AS Roma 2–1 AtalantaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AS Roma or draw at 74%. Bawler had AS Roma at 48%, the draw at 26% and Atalanta at 26%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
AS Roma win
48%
Result
Draw
26%
Atalanta win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.1
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.2 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Atalanta to win
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Roma's fight to hold a European spot at home against Atalanta—level on stakes but trailing by four points—tilts toward an Over 1.5 Goals forecast (78%), as Dybala's creative threat and a 0.52 xG advantage suggest multiple scoring chances."