FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Monday, 31 August 2026
Aston Villa 0–1 ArsenalMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 31 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Arsenal or draw at 75%. Bawler had Aston Villa at 26%, the draw at 28% and Arsenal at 47%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Aston Villa win
26%
Draw
28%
Arsenal win
47%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.0 – 1.5
Total 2.5
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.3 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Arsenal or draw
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.