FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Atalanta 1–2 CagliariMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Atalanta or draw at 80%. Bawler had Atalanta at 56%, the draw at 24% and Cagliari at 20%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Atalanta win
56%
Draw
24%
Cagliari win
20%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.0
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals ranks as the high-confidence forecast at 76%, anchored on Atalanta's 0.82 expected-goal advantage and their striker Mateo Retegui commanding 28% of team creation."