FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Athletic Club 3–0 Atlético MadridMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Athletic Club or draw at 68%. Bawler had Athletic Club at 41%, the draw at 27% and Atlético Madrid at 32%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Athletic Club win
41%
Result
Draw
27%
Atlético Madrid win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.3
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Atlético Madrid defends a Champions League spot with everything on the line while Athletic Club plays for pride, yet xG data (1.51 vs 1.36) and a 78% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals suggest the hosts will push hard enough to breach a vulnerable defense."