FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Atlanta United FC 2–2 New York City FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Atlanta United FC or draw at 64%. Bawler had Atlanta United FC at 38%, the draw at 27% and New York City FC at 36%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Atlanta United FC win
38%
Draw
27%
Result
New York City FC win
36%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.4
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 78% because both teams generate nearly identical attacking threat—Atlanta's Thiago Almada and New York's Alonso Martínez each drive 24% of their side's xG in a fixture where combined expected goals reach 2.85."