Bawler / USA: MLS / Atlanta Utd
Team profile

Atlanta Utd Prediction

Per-game numbers from 45 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
12.0
a game
12.9 faced
On target
4.0
a game
5.4 faced
Goals
1.1 – 1.9
scored – conceded
a game, 45 matches
Next match
20%
Atlanta Utd win chance
at Minnesota United · Thu 20 Aug 00:30

Atlanta Utd prediction: for Atlanta Utd's next match — Minnesota United vs Atlanta Utd on Thursday 20 Aug, 00:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Minnesota United are favoured (54%).

Atlanta Utd sit close to the MLS average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.19 expected goals a game and conceding 1.60. They have struggled lately, losing 3 of their last 5. Next up is a trip to Minnesota United FC, where the model has them as underdogs at 20%.

Atlanta Utd in numbers

45 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.1
Goals · per game
let in 1.9
Home 1.6Away 0.7
4.4
Corners · per game
give up 5.2
Home 5.1Away 3.7
12.0
Shots · per game
faced 12.9
Home 12.6Away 11.4
4.0
On target · per game
faced 5.4
Home 4.6Away 3.4
Last 6 games
15 Aug
2-1
vs New York Red Bulls
3-7
01 Aug
2-3
@ Philadelphia Union
2-12
25 Jul
1-4
@ New England Revolution
6-4
23 Jul
2-2
@ Charlotte
3-6
18 Jul
0-1
@ Nashville
2-4
24 May
0-2
@ Columbus Crew
3-2

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Minnesota United · Thursday 20 Aug, 00:30 UTC

Win
20%
Atlanta Utd
Draw
25%
Loss
54%
Opponent
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Atlanta Utd compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.19
Below average
Goals against
1.60
Leakier than most
Record
2W 2D 7L
11 settled
Real goals
1.2 – 2.0
For / against, per match
Scored1.19
Conceded1.60

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 1.19 xG per match · -0.28 above the USA: MLS average of 1.48.
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.60 xG per match · +0.15 vs league average of 1.45.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Atlanta Utd fixtures (3/3).

How Bawler has done on Atlanta Utd

91%
of high-confidence calls correct — 10 of 11, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)88%7/8
Result100%3/3

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Mon 24 Augvs Sporting Kansas City

Recent matches (last 10)

Sun 16 Augvs Red Bull New York
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 02 Aug@ Philadelphia Union
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Jul@ New England Revolution
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 23 Jul@ Charlotte FC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 18 Jul@ Nashville SC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 24 May@ Columbus Crew
High confidence: 1X
Sun 17 May@ Orlando City SC
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 10 Mayvs LA Galaxy
High confidence: X2
Sun 03 Mayvs CF Montréal
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 19 Aprvs Nashville SC
High confidence: X2

More on Atlanta Utd and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly