How it finished
Atlanta United FC and New York City FC drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Atlanta United FC at 38% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 4. Atlanta United FC had 7 shots (5 on target) to New York City FC's 9 (3), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 1.0 to 0.8.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 73%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC?
Atlanta United FC and New York City FC drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Atlanta United FC at 38% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 4. Atlanta United FC had 7 shots (5 on target) to New York City FC's 9 (3), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 1.0 to 0.8.
What was the final score in Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC?
Atlanta United FC 2–2 New York City FC, played on 27 Sept 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with Atlanta United FC 38%, the draw 27% and New York City FC 36%.
What were the stats in Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC?
Full-time: Possession 51%–49%, Expected goals (xG) 1.0–0.8, Shots 7–9, Shots on target 5–3, Shots inside box 4–5, Big chances 1–1, Corners 4–3, Saves 2–3, Fouls 14–14, Offsides 2–2, Yellow cards 1–1.
Did both teams score in Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC?
Yes — both Atlanta United FC and New York City FC scored, finishing 2–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Atlanta United FC or draw 64%, it finished Draw (27% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 58%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 78%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 54%, it finished Landed.