FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Atlanta United FC 2–3 Orlando City SCMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Atlanta United FC or draw at 65%. Bawler had Atlanta United FC at 41%, the draw at 24% and Orlando City SC at 35%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Atlanta United FC win
41%
Draw
24%
Orlando City SC win
35%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.6
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 3.0
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's 85% call here, with Atlanta's Thiago Almada and Orlando's Luis Muriel anchoring a combined 3.34 xG forecast that projects a goal-heavy affair despite the narrow 1.75–1.60 xG split."