FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Wednesday, 19 August 2026
Atlético Madrid 2–0 MálagaMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 19 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Atlético Madrid to win at 78%. Bawler had Atlético Madrid at 78%, the draw at 15% and Málaga at 7%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Atlético Madrid win
78%
Result
Draw
15%
Málaga win
7%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.6 – 0.7
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 0.2
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Atlético Madrid or draw
Pre-match: 93%
Landed
Outside shot
Málaga or draw
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.