Atlético Madrid vs Málaga prediction — LaLiga · Wed 19 Aug · 20:00 UK

LaLiga · Wed 19 Aug · 20:00 UK
Atlético Madrid 78Draw 15Málaga 7
Our call before kickoff
78%
Atlético Madrid to win
Landed
3.2
Goals expected
Full time
Final 2–0
Both teams score (before kick-off)
45%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
63%

How it finished

Atlético Madrid beat Málaga 2–0. Bawler's model had Atlético Madrid in front at 78% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.2 goals; only 2 were scored. Atlético Madrid had 15 shots (6 on target) to Málaga's 5 (1), with 53% of the ball against 47%. Expected goals finished 0.8 to 0.2.

Atlético…Full-time statsMálaga
53%Possession47%
0.8Expected goals (xG)0.2
15Shots5
6Shots on target1
8Shots inside box4
2Big chances0
6Corners1
1Saves4
17Fouls11
2Offsides2
2Yellow cards3
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callAtlético Madrid to win 78%Atlético Madrid won (78% called)
Total goals3.22
Both teams to score45%No
Graded pickAtlético Madrid or draw 93%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

Atlético MadridMálaga
2.6
Goals+1.9
0.7

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first.

MarketProbability
Atlético Madrid to score92%
Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals63%

No first-half forecast for this fixture.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+1.9 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Atlético Madrid 5 · Draws 0 · Málaga 0
Málaga in their league tableBottom quarter

Head to head

Feb 2018Malaga 0–1 Atletico Madrid
Sept 2017Atletico Madrid 1–0 Malaga
Apr 2017Malaga 0–2 Atletico Madrid
Oct 2016Atletico Madrid 4–2 Malaga
Apr 2016Atletico Madrid 1–0 Malaga
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Atlético Madrid vs Málaga?

Atlético Madrid beat Málaga 2–0. Bawler's model had Atlético Madrid in front at 78% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.2 goals; only 2 were scored. Atlético Madrid had 15 shots (6 on target) to Málaga's 5 (1), with 53% of the ball against 47%. Expected goals finished 0.8 to 0.2.

What was the final score in Atlético Madrid vs Málaga?

Atlético Madrid 2–0 Málaga, played on 19 Aug 2026 in the SPAIN: LaLiga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Atlético Madrid 78%, the draw 15% and Málaga 7%.

What were the stats in Atlético Madrid vs Málaga?

Full-time: Possession 53%–47%, Expected goals (xG) 0.8–0.2, Shots 15–5, Shots on target 6–1, Shots inside box 8–4, Big chances 2–0, Corners 6–1, Saves 1–4, Fouls 17–11, Offsides 2–2, Yellow cards 2–3.

Did both teams score in Atlético Madrid vs Málaga?

No. It finished 2–0, so Málaga failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 45% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Málaga right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Atlético Madrid to win 78%, it finished Atlético Madrid won (78% called); Total goals — we said 3.2, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 45%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Atlético Madrid or draw 93%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

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