FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Atlético Madrid 2–1 Real MadridMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Real Madrid or draw at 67%. Bawler had Atlético Madrid at 33%, the draw at 24% and Real Madrid at 42%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Atlético Madrid win
33%
Result
Draw
24%
Real Madrid win
42%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.8
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 3.3.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals forecasts at 83% as Atlético's Griezmann and Real Madrid's Vinícius combine for half both teams' expected output across a 3.20 xG total."