How it finished
Atlético Madrid beat Real Madrid 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Real Madrid at 42% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Atlético Madrid 33%. It forecast 3.3 goals and the match produced 3. Atlético Madrid had 18 shots (9 on target) to Real Madrid's 8 (3), with 61% of the ball against 39%. Expected goals finished 2.4 to 0.3.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 76%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid?
Atlético Madrid beat Real Madrid 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Real Madrid at 42% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Atlético Madrid 33%. It forecast 3.3 goals and the match produced 3. Atlético Madrid had 18 shots (9 on target) to Real Madrid's 8 (3), with 61% of the ball against 39%. Expected goals finished 2.4 to 0.3.
What was the final score in Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid?
Atlético Madrid 2–1 Real Madrid, played on 20 Sept 2026 in the Spain: La Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Atlético Madrid 33%, the draw 24% and Real Madrid 42%.
What were the stats in Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid?
Full-time: Possession 61%–39%, Expected goals (xG) 2.4–0.3, Shots 18–8, Shots on target 9–3, Shots inside box 13–3, Big chances 3–1, Corners 3–1, Saves 2–5, Fouls 19–6, Offsides 2–2, Yellow cards 2–2, Red cards 0–1.
Did both teams score in Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid?
Yes — both Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid scored, finishing 2–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 65% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Real Madrid or draw 67%, it finished Atlético Madrid won (33% called); Total goals — we said 3.3, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 65%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 84%, it finished Landed.