FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Austin FC 1–1 Colorado RapidsMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Colorado Rapids or draw at 66%. Bawler had Austin FC at 34%, the draw at 26% and Colorado Rapids at 41%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Austin FC win
34%
Draw
26%
Result
Colorado Rapids win
41%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.6
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 80% in the model's call, with both sides generating 1.42 and 1.57 xG respectively in a fixture that projects to flow end-to-end."