FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Austin FC 3–3 San Diego FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was San Diego FC or draw at 68%. Bawler had Austin FC at 32%, the draw at 25% and San Diego FC at 42%. The match finished 3–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Austin FC win
32%
Draw
25%
Result
San Diego FC win
42%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.6
Total 3.0
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+3.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced 3.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"San Diego's 1.62 expected goals and 10-point win-probability edge make Over 1.5 Goals the model's 80% call in a fixture projecting 3.02 total xG."