FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Austin FC 1–1 San Jose EarthquakesMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was San Jose Earthquakes or draw at 70%. Bawler had Austin FC at 30%, the draw at 23% and San Jose Earthquakes at 47%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Austin FC win
30%
Draw
23%
Result
San Jose Earthquakes win
47%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.9
Total 3.4
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 86%
Landed
Medium confidence
San Jose Earthquakes or draw
Pre-match: 70%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 86%, driven by San Jose's 0.41 xG advantage and their 47% win probability in a matchup where combined expected goals reach 3.44."