FT · World: International Friendly · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

Australia 2–4 BrazilMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

Australia
2–4
Brazil win
Brazil

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Brazil or draw at 77%. Bawler had Australia at 23%, the draw at 27% and Brazil at 51%. The match finished 2–4.

Pre-match probability vs result

Australia win
23%
Draw
27%
Brazil win
51%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.0 – 1.6
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 4
Total 6 (+3.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 3.6
From the match itself

The match produced 3.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Brazil or draw
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 26%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Brazil's superior shot quality—commanding 1.57 xG to Australia's 0.96—underpins the Brazil or draw forecast (78% confidence), with Vinícius Jr and Rodrygo accounting for 38% of the visitors' attacking threat."

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