World: World CupFriday 03 Jul, 18:00 UTC

Australia vEgypt

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.66 goals expected
Australia 32%Draw 32%Egypt 36%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
76%

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 76% because both sides generate similar firepower—Australia 1.28 xG, Egypt 1.38—guaranteeing a low-scoring but open contest where goals flow from both ends.

How we get there
AustraliastepEgypt
1.28Base xG · rolling 26-match1.38
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.28Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.38
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
76%
Over 3.5 goals
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Egypt average 2.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
10
7
3
1
1
9
12
9
4
1
2
6
8
5
3
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Mohamed Salah
Egypt · Liverpool
55%
To score
Omar Marmoush
Egypt · Man City
42%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Australia vs Egypt — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Australia and Egypt — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Australia 32% · draw 32% · Egypt 36%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Australia 11 Egypt
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.