FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Saturday, 29 August 2026
AZ Alkmaar 5–2 Go Ahead EaglesMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AZ Alkmaar to win at 66%. Bawler had AZ Alkmaar at 66%, the draw at 19% and Go Ahead Eagles at 15%. The match finished 5–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
AZ Alkmaar win
66%
Result
Draw
19%
Go Ahead Eagles win
15%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 1.0
Total 3.4
Actual
5 – 2
Total 7 (+3.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced 3.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
AZ Alkmaar to win
Pre-match: 66%
Landed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"AZ Alkmaar's home win commands 66% forecast probability, built on a decisive 1.29 xG advantage and Troy Parrott's striker role accounting for nearly a quarter of their attacking threat."