AZ Alkmaar beat Go Ahead Eagles 5–2. Bawler's model had AZ Alkmaar in front at 66% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.4 goals; the match produced 7. AZ Alkmaar had 20 shots (8 on target) to Go Ahead Eagles' 10 (4), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 2.4 to 1.8.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 79%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
AZ Alkmaar beat Go Ahead Eagles 5–2. Bawler's model had AZ Alkmaar in front at 66% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.4 goals; the match produced 7. AZ Alkmaar had 20 shots (8 on target) to Go Ahead Eagles' 10 (4), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 2.4 to 1.8.
AZ Alkmaar 5–2 Go Ahead Eagles, played on 29 Aug 2026 in the Netherlands: Eredivisie. Bawler's model had gone into it with AZ Alkmaar 66%, the draw 19% and Go Ahead Eagles 15%.
Full-time: Possession 52%–48%, Expected goals (xG) 2.4–1.8, Shots 20–10, Shots on target 8–4, Shots inside box 13–7, Big chances 3–3, Corners 8–4, Saves 2–3, Fouls 9–6, Offsides 1–1.
Yes — both AZ Alkmaar and Go Ahead Eagles scored, finishing 5–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 59% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said AZ Alkmaar to win 66%, it finished AZ Alkmaar won (66% called); Total goals — we said 3.4, it finished 7; Both teams to score — we said 59%, it finished Yes.