FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Monday, 31 August 2026
Barcelona 5–2 Rayo VallecanoMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 31 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Barcelona to win at 65%. Bawler had Barcelona at 65%, the draw at 20% and Rayo Vallecano at 15%. The match finished 5–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Barcelona win
65%
Result
Draw
20%
Rayo Vallecano win
15%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 1.0
Total 3.2
Actual
5 – 2
Total 7 (+3.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.8 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 3.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Barcelona to win
Pre-match: 65%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.