FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Bayer Leverkusen 4–0 1. FC Union BerlinMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Bayer Leverkusen to win at 61%. Bawler had Bayer Leverkusen at 61%, the draw at 22% and 1. FC Union Berlin at 18%. The match finished 4–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Bayer Leverkusen win
61%
Result
Draw
22%
1. FC Union Berlin win
18%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.1
Total 3.2
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.9 – 0.4
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Bayer Leverkusen to win
Pre-match: 61%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 40%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Leverkusen's 62% win forecast reflects their Champions League push at home against a mid-table opponent with nothing to chase, while Wirtz's creative dominance underpins a 1.12 xG advantage that should prove decisive."