FT · Europe: Europa League · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 NK CeljeMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Bayer Leverkusen to win at 65%. Bawler had Bayer Leverkusen at 65%, the draw at 20% and NK Celje at 15%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Bayer Leverkusen win
65%
Result
Draw
20%
NK Celje win
15%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 1.0
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Bayer Leverkusen to win
Pre-match: 65%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 39%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Bayer Leverkusen's home win is the high-confidence forecast at 65%, powered by a dominant 1.24 expected-goals advantage and Wirtz orchestrating 25% of their attacking output."