FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Monday, 28 September 2026

Belgium 0–1 FranceMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 28 September 2026

Belgium
0–1
France win
France

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Belgium or draw at 71%. Bawler had Belgium at 47%, the draw at 25% and France at 29%. The match finished 0–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Belgium win
47%
Draw
25%
France win
29%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.8 – 1.3
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 1.2
From the match itself

The match produced 2.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Missed
Medium confidence
Belgium or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Belgium's 0.53 expected-goals advantage and Lukaku's creative load make Over 1.5 Goals the model's 82% call, with both offences positioned to find the net despite France's defensive structure."

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