How it finished
France beat Belgium 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Belgium at 47% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave France 29%. It forecast 3.1 goals; only 1 was scored. Belgium had 12 shots (2 on target) to France's 18 (7), with 35% of the ball against 65%. Expected goals finished 0.7 to 1.2.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 75%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Belgium vs France?
France beat Belgium 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Belgium at 47% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave France 29%. It forecast 3.1 goals; only 1 was scored. Belgium had 12 shots (2 on target) to France's 18 (7), with 35% of the ball against 65%. Expected goals finished 0.7 to 1.2.
What was the final score in Belgium vs France?
Belgium 0–1 France, played on 28 Sept 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Belgium 47%, the draw 25% and France 29%.
What were the stats in Belgium vs France?
Full-time: Possession 35%–65%, Expected goals (xG) 0.7–1.2, Shots 12–18, Shots on target 2–7, Shots inside box 7–12, Big chances 0–2, Corners 2–6, Saves 5–2, Fouls 12–9, Offsides 0–1, Yellow cards 3–0.
Did both teams score in Belgium vs France?
No. It finished 0–1, so Belgium failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 62% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Belgium vs France right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Belgium or draw 71%, it finished France won (29% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 62%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 82%, it finished Missed.