World: World CupSunday 21 Jun, 19:00 UTC

Belgium vIran

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.79 goals expected
Belgium 46%Draw 30%Iran 24%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
75%

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 75% probability because Belgium's 1.65 xG and Iran's 1.14 xG combined (2.79 total) creates a high-volume attacking script that Lukaku and Taremi are primed to exploit.

How we get there
BelgiumstepIran
1.65Base xG · rolling 26-match1.14
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.65Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.14
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
75%
Belgium or draw
62%
Over 3.5 goals
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Belgium average 4.3 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches). Iran average 2.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
7
4
2
1
10
12
7
3
1
2
8
10
5
2
1
3
5
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Romelu Lukaku
Belgium · Napoli
48%
To score
Mehdi Taremi
Iran · Olympiacos
44%
To assist
Kevin De Bruyne
Belgium · Napoli
44%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Belgium vs Iran — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Belgium and Iran — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Belgium 46% · draw 30% · Iran 24%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Belgium 00 Iran
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.