Belgium vSenegal
Over 2.5 Goals sits at 74% because Belgium's 1.79 xG advantage and Lukaku's 22% team-shot creation outweigh Senegal's 1.06 xG, forcing high-volume attacking play from the home side.
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Belgium average 4.3 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches).
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
Belgium vs Senegal — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Belgium and Senegal — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Belgium 51% · draw 29% · Senegal 20%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.